While the pundits have been proclaiming the rise of the Linux desktop for just about as long as Linux has existed, it remains to be seen whether any en masse desktop adoption awaits us (I’m talking general public adoption, and not adoption among those likely to be reading this blog). Although distributions like Ubuntu, and great resources such as our newly released “Beginning Ubuntu, Second Edition”, by award-winning author Keir Thomas is slowly changing my opinion that the Linux desktop could soon emerge in much the same way Firefox did.

Another indication is the growing number of stories such as “Digital World: The Rise of Linux (finally?)” appearing in mainstream publications such as The Jerusalem Post. If anything, it’s an indication of the growing influence of Linux and open source in society at-large.

But perhaps the most telling indication is highlighted in part in Paul Graham’s excellent new essay, “Microsoft is Dead”. I’ve never been much of a Microsoft-basher, although admittedly Vista has left me muttering the Redmond giant’s name in conjunction with no small number of four-letter words over the past month. Microsoft finds itself in a very tough position, needing to figure out how to adapt its all-encompassing operating system to gel with a user base far more dependent on Web-based applications than ever before, yet Vista’s incredibly long development cycle coupled with its questionable outcome could quite possibly have closed the window on the company’s ability to adjust to this demand in time.

Ultimately, exactly why will the general public even need an operating system (i.e. Linux) capable of booting to little more than a browser in 5-10 years? With Gmail/Flickr/Google Office/Firefox/Pandora/SugarCRM/etc it certainly seems plausible, and in fact likely. One must wonder why high-profile open source projects such as OpenOffice and Thunderbird aren’t working on web-based versions, as the writing certainly seems to be on the wall regarding the pending death of the desktop client. We’re not there yet, but all indications are showing that’s where we’re going.